There are kernels of good news among the torrent of bad news in the latest climate reports.
Taken together, they show that the world is still headed for a world of weather disasters that will be more frequent and intense than what we are already seeing.
But the speed at which we are moving there has slowed down.
For the first time, a major forecast predicts that current policies will end the relentless growth in the use of fossil fuels.
The transition to cleaner energy is accelerating; however, this is not happening fast enough to keep global temperature rise below targets set at a climate conference in Paris in 2015.
End of an era
According to the latest forecasts from the International Energy Agency, after an almost inescapable increase since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the global use of fossil fuels could finally stop growing this decade.
He predicts that coal use will begin to decline over the next few years, followed by natural gas by the end of the decade. Oil is expected to peak in the 2030s.
This is the first time the agency has predicted that current policies will alter the trajectory.
Coal, the most CO2-producing fuel, has benefited from the disruption caused by the Russian war in Ukraine this year, but the IEA says this is temporary.
And the growth of renewable energy and electric vehicles this year has helped to offset the increase in CO2 emissions from coal. He predicts that the current energy crisis will accelerate, not slow, the move away from fossil fuels.
A race against time
The report notes, however, that the current rate of decline is not fast enough to avert unprecedented heat waves, droughts, storms, floods, species extinctions and ecosystem collapses.
World leaders pledged in Paris to limit global warming by the end of the century to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius and to aim for 1.5°C. Scientists say the damage caused by climate change increases dramatically between 1.5°C and 2°C.
So far, the world has experienced a warming of around 1.1°C, and the consequences are already being felt in the form of more intense heat waves, droughts, storms and rising seas.
Scientists say emissions need to fall by around 45% by 2030 to be on track for 1.5°C warming this century.
Under current policies, the planet is on track for a warming of 2.8°C, according to the latest Emissions Gap Report from the United Nations Environment Programme.
National plans submitted ahead of the upcoming November 6-18 climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, would reduce that warming only slightly, to 2.6°C.
Many of these national plans include additional commitments that require external funding or other conditions. If all these promises are fulfilled, this brings the warming down to 2.4°C.
Eighty-eight countries have pledged to eliminate their emissions by 2050. If they succeeded, it would keep the temperature rise to 1.8°C.
The report says this scenario is “not credible” because many of these pledges do not include short-term goals or explain how they would achieve them.
The good news is that the world has made progress. The predictions for the Paris climate summit were for around 3.5°C of warming.
Countries are committed to going much further and have the tools to do so, the IEA report adds.
Watch out for methane
However, there is another worrying fact.
Along with record amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere last year, the World Meteorological Organization has seen a record rise in levels of another potent greenhouse gas: methane.
Methane is the second largest contributor to climate change. There is far less methane in the atmosphere than CO2, but it is about 30 times more potent.
It is the main component of natural gas, which has become an increasingly important fuel for power plants and industrial uses. Leaks along the supply chain contribute to the increase in atmospheric methane.
These are not the only sources. And they may not be the main contributors to the big increase.
Methane is a byproduct of decomposition. Airless microbes produce it by breaking down dead plants and animals.
Scientists aren’t sure, but it appears that methane emissions from tropical wetlands are the main driver of rising levels in recent years.
Since microbes act faster at warmer temperatures, a warming planet may mean they produce even more methane in years to come.
More methane means more warming. More warming means more methane.
It’s one of the dangerous feedback loops that scientists believe could accelerate climate change, making cutting human emissions all the more urgent.
