Fossil fuel growth undermines clean energy progress

According to a series of new reports, clean energy is seeing a wave of new developments around the world, with electricity generated from carbon-free wind and solar helping to meet growing global energy demand. But the benefits of new renewable energy, including its impact on greenhouse gas emissions, are simultaneously being undermined by an increase in new fossil fuel projects coming online.

Just a month away from COP27 global climate talks and early indicators suggesting the world is still far from meeting the Paris Agreement targets, this is the latest reminder that fossil fuels maintain a stubborn grip on the global economy and continue to undermine the effort to avert catastrophic climate change by the end of the century.

In fact, to even stand a chance of fulfilling the international climate agreement’s Herculean task of achieving net zero emissions by 2050 to limit average global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, clean energy investments are set to quadruple over the decade, according to a new analysis from BloombergNEF. Investments in fossil fuels continue to outpace those in renewables, according to the report, with about 90 cents going to renewable sources for every dollar spent on fossil fuels.

The result has been a boom in new clean energy infrastructure that, while impressive, is still struggling to even out the trend of rising global greenhouse gas emissions. If this trend does not change course soon, the cost to governments will only increase, officials from the International Monetary Fund, one of the United Nations’ main global financial agencies, said in another report released this week.

“The world must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least a quarter before the end of this decade to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050,” the officials wrote. “The necessary progress towards such significant change will inevitably impose short-term economic costs, although these will be overshadowed by the myriad long-term benefits of slowing climate change.”

In the United States, the amount of electricity generated from clean sources has tripled over the past decade. And that record growth has continued this year, with electricity generated from solar and wind sources jumping 22% in the first nine months of 2022. But despite that growth, emissions from the U.S. electric sector haven’t declined only 1% so far this year, largely due to a concurrent increase in new natural gas production coming on stream.

Overall, a similar situation is playing out, but with coal. Despite promises made in recent years by governments and the coal industry itself to phase out the use of coal-fired power plants, the dirtiest form of fossil fuel has seen a resurgence following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. In fact, nearly half of all coal companies in the world are now planning to expand their business, led by China’s power sector, according to a study released this week that looked at the plans of more than 1,000 companies that account for 90% of all companies. coal-fired power generation. The International Energy Agency also expects global coal consumption to jump nearly 1% by the end of the year, before hitting a record high in 2023.

“The continued burning of large amounts of coal around the world heightens climate concerns, as coal is the largest source of energy-related CO2 emissions,” the IEA wrote in its July report, noting that coal consumption also saw a “sharp increase” last year. , which “contributed significantly to the largest ever annual increase in global energy-related CO2 emissions in absolute terms, placing them at their highest level in history”.

This sharp increase in carbon dioxide emissions last year – around 6% – has erased the historic drop in emissions the world has seen during the Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns. In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration observatory in Hawaii detected a record level of carbon dioxide of 421 parts per million in the atmosphere. While this was the peak of the year, which always comes at the end of winter in the northern hemisphere, current readings from the observatory show an overall trend line that does not appear to be changing direction. heading relative to its steady upward march.

“The science is irrefutable: Humans are changing our climate in ways that our economy and infrastructure must adapt to,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a news release from the agency. response to May’s record reading. “The relentless rise in carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa is a stark reminder that we need to take urgent and serious action to become a more climate-ready nation.”

In some cases, the effects of climate change itself, such as worsening drought that makes it more difficult for hydroelectric dams to generate electricity, also limit the effectiveness of renewables. But there is still a silver lining to be drawn from current trends: without the record installation of new clean energy systems, the amount of electricity generated from fossil fuels, as well as its greenhouse gas emissions later greenhouses, would have been even higher.

Even though global energy demand increased by 3% in the first half of the year, new renewable energy installations were more than enough to meet this need, preventing a further 4% increase in fossil fuel production and about 230 metric tons of CO2 that was released because of it, according to another report released this week.

“We are approaching a tipping point, where clean electricity – driven by wind and solar – will meet all future growth in electricity demand,” wrote Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, principal analyst in electricity to clean energy think tank Ember, in the report. . “The electricity sector should rapidly reduce its emissions. The fact that we are still at or near record highs shows how much faster the transition to electricity needs to happen. »

That’s all this week for today’s weather. The newsletter will take a break next Tuesday in honor of Indigenous Peoples Day on Monday. But I’ll be back in your inbox this Friday.