“Clearly last month we saw a new joint daily record for Australia, with the 50.7 degrees in the north [Western Australia].
“As the climate continues to warm, we are going to see more heat records, we will see more days out of 35 [degrees] and more 40 days as well – it will happen – and also the possibility of 45 or even 50 days in Melbourne.
“If we continue to emit greenhouse gases and warm the planet, it is possible that in a few decades … in the middle of the 21st century there is a reasonable chance that we will have 50 degree days in Melbourne and in Sidney.”
Humidity in Melbourne has also hit record highs through January, with ‘dew point’ temperatures – which show the amount of moisture in the air – surpassing previous monthly records by substantial margins.
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“We measure [humidity] looking at the dew point temperatures at 9 a.m. and 3 p.m., and they are well above average due to La Nina, with lots of humidity coming in from the north,” said Mr How from the office.
It was the eighth wettest January on record in Victoria, and the wettest since 2011 – the last time the La Nina weather event occurred – with statewide rainfall from 90% above average.
The northeast of the state saw some of the highest rainfall on record in January. Both Rutherglen and Wodonga recorded their wettest month ever, with 274 millimeters and 269 millimeters of precipitation respectively, which the bureau said was about six to seven times the monthly average of 45 millimeters.
Albury also recorded its highest rainfall in a single month at 306 millimetres.
Melbourne recorded 79.6 millimeters of rainfall in January, about 33 millimeters above average.
Mr How said in the far west of the state, ‘it’s the reverse, with very dry conditions just across the South Australian border’.
“They received much below average rainfall,” he said.
“[This summer’s La Nina] helps explain why it was wetter than usual, especially in the east.
“[The weather has been] hot, humid, wet and somewhat in line with what we expected this summer with La Nina.”
Australia is in the midst of a La Nina weather event, which generally means cooler (but not necessarily cold) temperatures, more rainy days, and a higher chance of stormy weather. El Nino, at the other end of the spectrum, brings warmer temperatures and less precipitation. Both are native to the Pacific Ocean.
Dr King said while climate change was likely to have an effect on weather systems like La Nina and El Nino, it was “subtle” compared to impacts on heatwaves and extreme heat.
The office issued a severe thunderstorm warning for parts of northeastern Victoria on Tuesday, with a moist, unstable air mass likely to produce “intense” rainfall and damaging winds.
VicEmergency also sent out a ‘watch and act’ alert, urging residents in areas including Bright, Mount Hotham and Falls Creek to prepare to take shelter and avoid life-threatening flash floods.
With Tom Cowie
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