When the remnants of Typhoon Merbok tracked west from Alaska to unleash what turned out to be the region’s strongest storm in more than half a century, meteorologists knew what was coming. What they couldn’t predict was the exact level and location of the floods – the devastation that prompted a federal disaster declaration on Friday by President Joe Biden and a whirlwind tour of Alaska this weekend by the administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Deanne Criswell.
“The large-scale weather models nailed this storm, days in advance. The storm surge models were crap — not complete crap, but a lot of crap,” said Rick Thoman, climatologist at the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
Chalk this down to huge gaps in coastal knowledge along the 1,000-mile coastal strip home to communities that have been inundated by floodwaters.
This is one of many long-term lessons that policy experts are already considering in the aftermath of the storm, including infrastructure needs.
There are only four water level stations maintained year-round in western and arctic Alaska by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, according to the Ocean Observing System of the Alaska, affiliated with NOAA, which aims to use ocean data to improve safety. Only two of these stations, located in Nome and Unalakleet, are in the wide swath of western Alaska affected by the storm.
It’s a glaring shortcoming that was highlighted by the Merbok disaster, Thoman said.
“Certainly, in my opinion, we need to improve our proximity to shore, community-wide monitoring in real time. And we need to have that linked to a national database. We need to know what these numbers mean,” said he declared.
The AOOS, part of NOAA’s Integrated Ocean Observing System, says neglect plays a role in these knowledge gaps. “Unfortunately, the coasts of Alaska have historically received less attention than the rest of the continental United States in terms of actual sightings and, therefore, suffer from a higher degree of uncertainty in terms of understanding the coastal water level, current and wind wave simulation capability,” AOOS says on its website.
NOAA funded a project, led by the University of Notre Dame, aimed at filling some of these gaps. NOAA is also catching up on its studies of the Alaskan seabed, a science known as bathymetry. Bathymetric knowledge of Alaska is notoriously sparse. As of early 2021, more than 70% of Alaska’s waters remain uncharted, according to NOAA’s Office of Coast Survey. The shape and characteristics of the ocean floor affect how water moves toward land, Thoman said.
The Alaska Geological and Geophysical Surveys Division is another agency that tries to gather information to make local-scale flood forecasts. A lot of baseline information needs to be gathered for the first time, a difficult task because Alaska’s coastline is so extensive, changes so rapidly, and is affected by “some of the highest rates of erosion in the world,” according to the division website.
Repair and reconstruction efforts highlight another long-term need: infrastructure improvements that will withstand repeated occurrences of severe storms like Typhoon Merbok.
Floods and winds tore away the foundations of homes, destroyed sections of road, scattered boats and vehicles, destroyed subsistence fishing camps and, in some places, exposed sections of permafrost that will now melt and likely s erode rapidly.
In the Inupiat village of Golovin, home to about 180 people and one of the hardest hit communities, the storm has added urgency to existing plans to move infrastructure and homes to higher ground, the official said. Mayor Charlie Brown.
The power plant, bulk fuel tank farm, school and water and sewage system are all in vulnerable places, including at the end of a spit, Brown said.
“Two or three more storms of this magnitude, everything will be washed away there,” he said. Water and sewage are of particular concern. The community has a 1.2 million gallon water reservoir directly at risk, he said.
In addition to moving structures and facilities upstream, it’s possible to protect structures “that are still habitable” by raising them and also erecting a rock face to protect the coast, Brown said.
Even before the storm, the relocation of homes and community infrastructure to higher ground was seen as an urgent need in Golovin and other communities. She and five other Alaskan communities received grants in March from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service to help pay for the relocation work.
Representative Mary Peltola, at a September 19 press conference, said there were many signs that current infrastructure is too weak to withstand the powerful storms that are likely to become more frequent as the climate warms. warms up. She noted that the storm shook up huge boulders arranged to protect the shores. “I’m not sure we’ve built things for storm surges that see 90-mile-per-hour winds,” she said.
This appears to have been the case in the Inupiat village of Shaktoolik. In this community of 210, where residents years ago opted out of an estimated $290 million relocation plan in favor of a protective beach berm built with gravel and driftwood for a cost estimated at less than $1 million. Typhoon Merbok erased this berm.
The Alaska disaster is directly linked to climate change, Thoman said. It formed over an area of the Pacific that lies well east of where typhoons usually originate, he said. Those waters there have warmed dramatically, he said. “We had this water that historically wouldn’t have supported the formation of tropical storms. Now we do,” he said. From this new origin site, Typhoon Merbok has was able to travel a shorter distance and retain more of its power when it reached Alaska than previous storms, he said.
Senator Lisa Murkowski, speaking on Saturday in an interview with the Nome KNOM radio station, acknowledged the role of climate change and said there is a need to prepare for it:
“Is that kind of our new normal here? And if so, we need to think about a longer-term vision of how we ensure the resilience of these communities,” she said, mentioning more levees and emergency escape routes. as possibilities.
The bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act signed into law last November — and drafted in part by Murkowski — includes funds specifically for relocating Alaskan villages and protecting against floods and storms. erosion linked to climate change.
In the immediate term, FEMA and other agencies are racing to beat the onset of winter frost expected in weeks and trying to figure out how to help area residents who rely on harvesting wild foods.
Many residents of storm-affected and largely Indigenous communities lost boats, all-terrain vehicles, smokehouses and other items needed to carry out these traditional harvests. Some have lost entire stocks of fish and other wild foods gathered over the summer and meant to last through the coming winter.
This is not the normal category of losses that FEMA counts in natural disasters occurring in places like hurricane-stricken Florida or the tornado-prone Midwest. For now, the Home Office is releasing $2.6 million through the Bureau of Indian Affairs for immediate assistance to pay for the replacements.
“As we continue to work with our tribal partners to identify and meet long-term needs, these initial funds will help purchase essential food, supplies and water for those affected by the storms,” said Bryan Newland, Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Indian Affairs. in a report.
Peltola, at a news conference Friday at Governor Dunleavy’s Anchorage office, said she wants FEMA officials to understand who needs this property to do subsistence harvesting.
“I know ‘cabin’ has a recreational sound to it, I think, if you’re not from Alaska. But Alaskans recognize that ‘cabin’ means a place where you gather food for your family, extended family and your community,” she said.
The same goes for snowmobiles, all-terrain vehicles and boats that have been damaged, destroyed or lost, she said. “These are not recreational vehicles. These are essential to be able to provide food security for your family,” she said.
This article originally appeared in the Alaska Beacon and is republished here with permission.
