A new method for predicting the response of ecosystems to marine heat waves developed by an international collaboration — ScienceDaily

Marine heat waves, driven by climate change, are becoming more frequent and intense around the world. Although we know that heat waves kill marine organisms and have devastating effects on ecosystems, there is currently no way to predict these effects or to help ecosystems adapt.

An international team of marine scientists from Hong Kong, Japan and Canada, led by Dr Bayden D RUSSELL (Associate Director of the Swire Institute of Marine Science and Associate Professor of the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Hong Kong) , whose Dr. Ben HARVEY (University of Tsukuba), Dr. Katie MARSHALL and Professor Christopher HARLEY (University of British Columbia), developed a new framework to allow us not only to understand the effects of marine heat waves, but also to potentially predict their effects before they occur. This new method will allow researchers around the world to identify key biological characteristics of marine species in their region and predict how they are likely to be stressed by heat waves. More importantly, using this trait-based approach will allow managers and decision makers to identify key species that are needed to support ecosystem functioning and develop strategies to help mitigate damage caused by heat waves.

Identifying the survivors: the future of marine ecosystems

Marine heat waves are discrete warming events in which marine waters warm up to 6°C above normal and can last anywhere from days to months. Such high temperatures stress animals and algae, often killing them and in some cases causing range contractions towards colder waters. At the same time, tropical species will move into these colder waters as they warm and alter these ecosystems, sometimes irreversibly. The authors identified that key functional traits, such as heat tolerance, dispersal ability, feeding habits, and behavioral traits potentially affecting ecosystem characteristics, could be used to more accurately identify both how species will be affected by heat waves and how this would change marine ecosystems.

According to the authors, identifying the functional traits of resident faunal and floral assemblages is crucial for assessing the vulnerability of marine ecosystems to change and for designing effective management, conservation and restoration plans. Until now, there was no framework to predict the potential effect of marine heat waves and to prepare for their occurrence. This new approach makes it possible to identify key species that support complex ecosystems, such as algae, corals, grazing fish or sea urchins, and to adapt management to these species to improve resistance to heat waves, their recovery after these and ultimately sustain the function of coastal zones. ecosystems.

“Unlike the current approach used to project the impacts of marine heat waves, the integration of trait-based approaches across multiple timescales allows us to use measurable and ecologically significant characteristics of organisms, physiological responses individuals to biological interactions, to predict patterns in space and time,” said Dr Bayden Russell. “We can now have a better understanding of how extreme events will determine geographic distribution patterns, abundance local and functional diversity of important species.”

“Using this approach will enable more targeted management of marine species to improve the resilience of communities to climate change,” added Dr Ben Harvey.

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Material provided by The University of Hong Kong. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.