Nothing beats clarity to get things done. And the world needs to reduce its carbon emissions to remain habitable for most of us in the not too distant future. Naturally, most climate conversations revolve around carbon, with political and business leaders jumping on the Net Zero bandwagon. So why cover our tracks, talking about, uh, water?
‘Cause while the world has been while speaking on reducing carbon emissions, those emissions themselves have increased.
Figure 1: Increasing carbon levels, Scripps CO2 program
And now carbon concentrations are so high that the world has warmed up a bit. And the warmer climate is felt through the water. Climate speaks through water, you see. Increased incidence of storms – verify. Growing incidence of drought (paradoxical, but understandable once you have water) – check. Increase in forest fires (less rain and less soil moisture) – check. Sea level rise – check. Melting glaciers – check. In India – arguably one of the countries most vulnerable to this warming – the voice of global warming water is screaming loudly. Take the damage caused by floods and droughts alone – nearly all of us have experienced unusually heavy rainfall (a fingerprint of climate change) in the past year.
Figure 2: Damage in India from floods and storms (EMDAT database)
And despite the talk, it doesn’t look like carbon concentrations will drop anytime soon. And with that, the warming will continue. In fact, even if emissions slowed, warming would continue. Climate Action Tracker, an independent website that tracks emissions pledges from various countries, puts warming at well above 2 degrees Celsius by 2100. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC ), the leading body for climate information, thinks it is very likely that the world will warm by about 1.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times by mid-century in the most optimistic scenario – that is, everyone reaches climate nirvana and rapidly reduces emissions.
In a more realistic scenario, warming could most likely exceed 2 degrees Celsius by mid-century. If water is so volatile at 1 degree Celsius warming, imagine how much more threatening it will be when warming increases. Take a photo on your phone. Now go to the edit section and start increasing the contrast. What global warming does is increase the contrast in the hydrological cycle: this is similar to what happens to your photo when you increase the contrast. Humid regions will become wetter. Intense showers like the ones we saw last year will become more frequent. And just as white regions become whiter in a high contrast image, drier regions will become more parched. Think northwest India or parts of Tamil Nadu.
Now you see why water needs to feature more prominently in the conversation.
And then there’s us. India’s water is already a very contrasting picture. We have one of the most geographically diverse seasonal waters in the world. And yet, we do stupid things when we ignore water like we did. For example, we destroy what little water storage we have. Mumbai at the start of the 19th century had over 3000 reservoirs and wells – they have all disappeared. Chennai, Bengaluru, Madurai, so many other cities had reservoirs that have turned into neighborhoods susceptible to flooding as the climate warms. In another stupid move, we switched to growing climate-unsuitable crops in one of the country’s driest regions. We’ve done this by tapping into our water savings – our groundwater. Of course, as expenses continually exceed income, our savings are depleted, which is happening across the country.
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Our local climate warriors embrace India’s need to reduce emissions. She should. But this story might unfold more easily if water were part of the story, instead of the monomania on carbon. There are many examples, but let me take three. First, coal. So many Indian coal plants are shut down during summers or during drought because they don’t have enough water to cool. Their use is so low that they cease to be profitable. These factories in these places (polluting, unreliable and unprofitable) are a great case of or India can begin to wean itself off coal, thereby reducing its emissions.
Second, take the solid waste. One of the companions of floods is the waste that clogs sewers and the rubble and rubbish that smothers our waterways and water bodies. Now, managing this waste will reduce flooding and help India adapt to a warmer climate. But in doing so, India will create hundreds of thousands of jobs and also reduce its emissions! How? ‘Or’ What? India’s solid waste is roughly two-thirds organic – think food waste. When thrown into landfills, food waste rots and releases methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Managing food waste will prevent food waste (a start-up I invested in is converting this waste into pressurized biogas to replace LPG. We have a small biogas plant at home that powers a stove).
Third, consider forests. Forests play a vital role in softening India’s volatile water. You can see their role by their absence in the Kerala floods. In forests, think of mangroves. Mangroves play a vital role in protecting our coastline. They mitigate the effect of storm surges and are therefore powerful warriors of climate adaptation. Studies have validated their protective role during the 2004 tsunami and the 1999 cyclone Orissa. They do so while harboring an astonishing variety of species and sequestering far more carbon than other types of tropical forests. Saving mangrove forests (many are disappearing) can help us adapt to a warmer climate by mitigating the ravages of water while tackling carbon emissions.
Yes, clarity is important to tackle the climate problem. But when the climate has visibly changed, that is to say when new data emerges, the mandate must take this into account. And the message of volatile water is that water management must be an important part of the narrative.
Mridula Ramesh is a leading climate and water expert and author of Watershed: How We Destroyed India’s Water and How We Can Save It and The Climate Solution: India’s Climate-Change Crisis and What We Can Do about It. You can follow her @mimiramesh. The opinions expressed in the article are those of the author and do not represent the position of this publication.
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